Nigeria’s mobile subscription base witnessed a significant rebound in October 2024, climbing to 157.3 million active lines from 154.6 million in September. This marks the beginning of recovery for the telecom sector, which had experienced months of decline following regulatory audits and the implementation of the NIN-SIM linkage exercise.

Key Drivers of Growth

This resurgence was primarily fueled by two telecom giants, MTN Nigeria and Airtel, both recording notable increases in their subscriber bases. These gains followed an extensive audit by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), which aimed to sanitize the nation’s telecom database by eliminating improperly registered and inactive lines.

MTN Leads the Pack

  • MTN, the largest operator in Nigeria, added 2.2 million subscribers in October, increasing its total active subscriptions to 80.3 million from 78 million in September.
  • This growth solidifies MTN’s market dominance, with a commanding 51.09% share of Nigeria’s mobile market.

Airtel’s Steady Rise

  • Airtel gained 697,430 new subscribers, bringing its active database to 54.4 million from 53.7 million in September.
  • Airtel now holds a 31.61% share of the mobile market, trailing MTN as the second-largest operator.

Decline for Globacom and 9mobile

  • Globacom, the third-largest operator, saw a 44,635 decline in active subscriptions, reducing its total to 19.1 million and representing 12.15% of the market share.
  • 9mobile, continuing its downward trend, lost 245,263 subscribers, bringing its database to 3.3 million and accounting for a mere 2.15% of the market share.

Teledensity on the Rise

The increase in active subscriptions also impacted Nigeria’s teledensity, which measures active telephone connections per 100 inhabitants. The teledensity rose from 71.46% in September to 72.7% in October, based on Nigeria’s estimated population of 216 million.

Behind the Numbers

The recent growth comes after a dramatic shake-up in the telecom sector, driven by two major factors:

  1. NIN-SIM Linkage Exercise:
    • Introduced to improve security and accountability, this exercise disconnected all SIMs not linked to a valid National Identification Number (NIN).
    • Between March and September 2024, this initiative reduced the country’s subscription database by 64.3 million lines.
  2. Database Audit by NCC:
    • The NCC discovered that some operators had misclassified over 40 million inactive lines as active. These lines had generated no revenue for over 90 days, violating NCC guidelines.

What Lies Ahead

The bounce-back in subscription numbers signals resilience and adaptation within Nigeria’s telecom industry. However, the losses recorded by Globacom and 9mobile highlight the growing challenges faced by smaller operators in retaining their customer base.

For MTN and Airtel, the challenge will be sustaining this growth amidst increasing competition and evolving regulatory requirements. On a broader scale, the telecom sector’s ability to maintain accurate, compliant databases will play a crucial role in its continued recovery and growth.

Final Thoughts

The growth in Nigeria’s mobile subscriptions is a positive indicator of the industry’s recovery after months of turbulence. As operators refine their strategies and the NCC enforces stringent compliance measures, the stage is set for a more robust and transparent telecom ecosystem.

What do you think about this rebound? Will MTN and Airtel continue to dominate, or could Globacom and 9mobile stage a comeback? Let us know in the comments!